BTC·ETH Options market, Weight on possibility of surge in July
An analysis has emerged that the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options markets are betting on the possibility of a price surge within July. The Block quoted an analysis by Shaun Dawson, head of research at Derivatives Research, stating, "Despite the declining trend in implied volatility of BTC and ETH throughout June, options traders are expecting sharp directional moves in July."
As of the 30th, BTC's implied volatility has fallen from 44% to 36%, and ETH from 68% to 60%. It is worth noting that even in mid-June, when tensions in the Middle East were heightened, the volatility response was lower than expected.
Currently, half of the open interest (OI) in BTC options expiring on July 25 is concentrated in call options with strike prices of $130,000 to $135,000 and put options of $85,000 to $90,000. This shows that traders are preparing for both upward and downward possibilities.
On the other hand, ETH exhibits a more unilateral flow. 80% of the total OI is concentrated in call options of $3,000 or more, suggesting a strong upward expectation for ETH.
Dawson added, "While ETH has a strong bullish narrative similar to tech stocks, BTC will show subsequent reactions based on macro variables," noting that macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, inflation indicators, and geopolitical risks could shake BTC's options market.